Economic Update – Slow and Steady Wins the Race in 2026

presented by

Mark Fleming
First American Title Insurance Company

The Case for Steady Rates
  • Inflation remains sticky
  • Growth will be above potential
  • Long-term yields and mortgage spreads will stay elevated
  • Result: mortgage rates will likely remain flat
Supply and Demand Dynamics
  • Rate lock-in is gradually easing
  • Where month’s supply grows house prices slow
  • Result: Affordability improves modestly via income growth and price moderation
Key Take Aways for 2026
  • Existing and new home sales will trend higher in 2026 as rates remain the same and supply slowly loosens.
  • Refinances are very rate sensitive. In-the-money mortgages jump from 3.0M at 6.3% to 5.8M at 6.0%.
  • CRE purchase and refinance transaction volume will also trend higher in 2026 as pricing clarity improves and financing conditions ease.
  • Development deals (data centers and energy) will increase too.
Bottom line: Conditions favor gradual healing across housing and CRE—plan for slow and steady winning the race.

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